Meteorologists are currently monitoring Tropical Storm Laura and Tropical Depression 14, which are at risk of strengthening into Category 1 hurricanes in the coming days, before making landfall in the US early next week. If the forecasts are correct, the hurricanes will contribute to what is expected to be a more severe than usual hurricane season for the Caribbean and the Atlantic coast of Central and North America. Coupled with this, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is in danger of reducing the ability of affected countries to respond to hurricanes, and subsequently exacerbating the consequences.
Since this year’s hurricane season began on 01 June, there have already been a record number of storms. The US body responsible for predicting and monitoring storms in the Atlantic (NOAA) has released a number of forecasts, all of which predict a greater number of hurricanes than usual. The average season experiences six regular and three major (Category 3 and above) hurricanes; this year, between seven and eleven regular hurricanes, and three and six major hurricanes are expected.
So far, there have been two Category 1 hurricanes, Hurricane Hanna and Hurricane Isaias. The latter was more destructive, killing 13 people and causing damage worth over $4bn in the Caribbean and along the east coast of the US and Canada. As of 21 August, meteorologists were monitoring Tropical Storm Laura and Tropical Depression 14 in the Atlantic, which are both at risk of strengthening into Category 1 hurricanes before making landfall in the US. Two hurricanes making near simultaneous landfall in the US is a rare event, and will be a further stretch on resources.
Meteorological conditions are expected to be near optimal for the creation of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Currently, the weather event La Niña is expected to develop this autumn, allowing storms to form without interruption. Furthermore, above-average sea temperatures are being recorded in the Atlantic basin, which provides warm surface water for potential hurricanes. Both these conditions increase the likelihood of tropical storms forming, and worsening into hurricanes.
There is also a suspected link between climate change and hurricane severity. Warmer seas are thought to make hurricanes wetter, and therefore increase rain and flooding. Also, higher sea levels are likely to strengthen coastal storm surges and cause greater damage. However, climate change is not thought to increase the frequency of hurricanes, with some suggestions that warmer sea temperatures increase the severity of hurricanes but decrease their frequency.
Already stretched resources will be pushed even further this hurricane season as governments also try to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic. With economies crippled, social distancing measures in place and resources already used elsewhere, precautions to limit hurricane damage will be harder to procure and more difficult to install. As a result, poorer nations, such as the Caribbean islands, are likely to suffer more severely from the combined effects of the pandemic and hurricane season in comparison to richer countries like the US.
During a hurricane, the quality of healthcare is at risk of deteriorating as hospitals attempt to care for both coronavirus patients and hurricane victims. Furthermore, evacuations are likely to be less efficient as social distancing and PPE considerations will complicate matters. Social distancing measures mean that shelters will be able to hold less evacuees, and concerns about the risk of infection at shelters is expected to discourage some from visiting them altogether. In the US, states most likely to experience hurricanes are currently some of the worst affected by the virus, namely Florida and Texas. Hurricane Isaias forced the closure of a number of COVID-19 testing facilities in Florida, which will have inevitably delayed preventive measures to control the virus, setting back the state’s recovery.
In the aftermath of a hurricane, foreign humanitarian agencies are expecting to find it more difficult to help those affected abroad due to coronavirus-related border restrictions. Aid budgets are likely to be reduced as government’s struggle economically. And the allocation of limited resources will require a trade-off between tackling the virus or repairing hurricane damage, with the prioritisation of one forfeiting the success of the other.
NGS advises that travellers should:
– Watch for storm warnings before travelling to areas at risk of hurricanes
– Monitor local media and news for updates to the meteorological environment
– Become familiar with local warning systems
– Review travel insurance to ensure coverage in the event of natural disaster, including unexpected expenses, and evacuation
– Ensure evacuation plans are in place before travel
– Maintain contact with travel operators and hotels regarding validity of flights and bookings
– Retain communications with family and contacts at home
– Make contingency plans for disruption to travel, considering routes in and out of affected areas, access to airport and hospitals
– Prepare a waterproof pack of essential items: bottled water, medications, food, radio, travel docs
– Carry spare charging devices and be mindful of the network coverage in country
– Have to hand a hard copy of assistance company contact information, as well as main employer POC
– Be aware of security risks, including looting
– Be prepared to move to a safe place at short notice, keeping travel documents available
– Follow the advice of local authorities at all times
Author: Lauren Snelling, NGS Risk Analyst
NGS is an emergency evacuation company that runs tracking, remote medical and security operations for global clients.
Contact: risk@northcottglobalsolutions.com
In the wake of increasing insecurity and uncertainty over the COVID-19 outbreak, some rising crime patterns have been reported. Some has been the theft of medical supplies, household goods and food; but some of it has been more insidious – violence against police, hospital facilities, healthcare professionals, and hate crimes and xenophobic attacks in general. […]
Cyber Security Cybercriminals are likely to target any weaknesses they can identify during the COVID-19 outbreak, including seeking to exploit any gaps presented by large-scale remote-working to access valuable data. Therefore both employers and employees should remain vigilant to network vulnerabilities and anticipate the targeting of remote access processes by highly organised criminal groupings. […]
With Italy recording the highest numbers of coronavirus cases outside of China, this Insight examines a number of reasons why that may be the case. Italy Since the first case was confirmed in Italy on 20 February, cases have skyrocketed to over 15,000. Italy is now home to the largest coronavirus […]
Coronavirus Respiratory diseases are not new, but the current COVID-19 outbreak is creating unprecedented concern amongst modern travellers, given the speed with which it is spreading across the world, a factor of the range and ease of modern global travel. The recent see-sawing of stock markets suggests that the virus’ long-term impact on international […]
Parliamentary elections are taking place today in Iran. With hardliners expected make considerable gains, the main focus of the election will be the turn out of the electorate and what it means about the support for the Regime. The Elections The electorate are heading to the polls today in Iran to vote […]
Swarms of locusts have arrived in East Africa and are causing growing concerns for food insecurity in the region. Overview Fears of a humanitarian crisis are rising in East Africa as the area is suffering from its worst case of locust swarms in 25 years. Unusually wet weather in the Arabian […]
On 05 February, an aircraft from “no-frills” airline Pegasus Airlines crashed on landing at Sabiha Gokcen airport, Istanbul. Although budget airlines in Western countries adhere to the strictest standards, it is perhaps timely to consider the risks associated with flying on no-frills airlines in the developing world where standards are not regulated to the same […]
Snap elections will be held in Israel on the 17 September 2019 to elect the members of the Knesset. This follows elections in April, which failed to form a governing coalition. In May, the Knesset voted to dissolve itself prior to the expiration of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s presidential mandate to form a government. Rather […]
After leading a military coup, Yahya Jammeh ruled The Gambia from 1996 until 2017. He is now making noises about returning from exile, which is very likely to result in widespread civil unrest between different communities across the country. President Yahya Jammeh Jammeh proved to be one of the most unacceptable […]
Causes Prime Minister Narendra Modi has overseen the passage of the Citizenship Act, a law that grants Indian citizenship to recent immigrants of minority religions, with the notable exception of Muslims. On Wednesday, the Indian supreme court postponed any challenges to the passage of the law. Much of the population is interpreting this […]
This article contains a global risk calendar in which scheduled events for 2020 are assessed for their risk of political violence, civil unrest, terrorism, crime and travel disruption. The calendar is then followed by a consideration of global issues in a number of categories, all of which are expected to have an effect upon global […]
Summary The largest public sector strike that France has seen in decades began yesterday. Hundreds of thousands of workers have walked out of their workplaces indefinitely in opposition to pension reforms by President Macron. The pro-business president has come up against widespread criticism of his attempt to streamline the pension system, which would universalise […]