Background   Fierce fighting has intensified along the Colombia-Venezuela border over the last two weeks. Bloody clashes between rival paramilitary groups, the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), have left at least 27 dead, including civilians. The shared 2,200km frontier has long been a haven for organised […]

As politicians all over the world gather to prepare for the year ahead, COVID-19 will retain its place at the head of the global agenda. In 2022, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to shape policy decisions, define the recovery of the world economy, and underpin freedom of travel. Government treasuries will have to contend with […]

Two connected border situations: Belarus-Poland and Russia-Ukraine   As many as 4,000 Middle Eastern migrants (primarily from Iraqi Kurdistan, Syria and Afghanistan) are currently stuck near the Polish border in Belarus. Having been invited there by the autocratic President Lukashenko of Belarus, with the promise of a swift entry into the EU, they have been […]

The UK city of Glasgow will host the 26th UN Climate Change Conference this November. The two-week-long event, beginning on 31 October, will attract large numbers of VIPs, including 120 heads of state. A further 30,000 delegates from 200 countries are expected to join to discuss changes to the climate and make commitments towards stalling […]

Lauren Snelling, Risk Analyst at Northcott Global Solutions, discusses risk mitigation solutions for companies and charities operating in one of the world’s most unstable regions.       Risks to NGOs in East Africa   The work of NGOs in East Africa has garnered considerable attention in recent months, most notably the result of the […]

Since the seizure of Kabul by the Taliban in mid-August, the most pressing question for Western governments has been whether the group will once more allow terrorists within its borders to conduct international attacks. The threat to the West will be shaped by a complex pattern of internal Taliban alliances and interlocking regional interests, with […]

Current situation   Twenty years after the Taliban were removed from power following the US-led invasion of Afghanistan, roles have been reversed with Westerns now fleeing the country and the Taliban expected to form the next government. The past two months saw the extremist Sunni militant group rapidly advance towards Kabul, taking successive provincial capitals […]

UNREST   On Wednesday 07 July, Jacob Zuma handed himself over to police. The following Friday, his appeal against prison on grounds of poor health was rejected, and violent protests broke out across KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces, particularly in parts of Durban and Johannesburg. The violence rapidly developed into deliberate property damage, arson and looting […]

News of a unilateral truce offered by the Ethiopian Federal Government to the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) has raised hopes that the eight-month conflict between the two may be coming to an end. The war has further diminished the prospect of stability and democratisation of Ethiopia, which had begun to show signs of development. Amid […]

Overview   According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), 2020 was the deadliest year in the Malian conflict so far, with 2,825 civilian and combatant deaths. This high death toll was driven by the growth of the rival jihadist groups Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the […]

Context   The second round of the Peruvian presidential election will take place on 06 June, following a first round on 11 April that saw a record 18 candidates compete in an atmosphere characterised by political disillusionment. The two candidates with the highest vote share and now in the second round, the far-left Pedro Castillo […]

Latest Incident   Two Spanish journalists and an Irish national were killed on Monday by gunmen in Burkina Faso’s Pama national park, a large nature reserve adjacent to the Benin border. Not much detail is available on the incident, but it appears that the journalists were filming a documentary about poaching activities with the help […]