With the Sudan conflict passing its one-month mark on the 15 May, NGS Risk Analyst, Gary Abbott, considers what the conflict means for the wider region, exploring how it could exacerbate underlying grievances and lead to increased insecurity in several countries in the Horn of Africa and those further afield.   Introduction   15 May […]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has caused many well-publicised ructions in Europe and the West. However, what is little reported are the political and security issues that have impacted on the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Here, NGS associate analyst James Bulbeck considers the political forecast for […]

On 14 May, Turkey will hold its most significant election in recent times, when, for the first time since his election in 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a realistic prospect of defeat. The presidential election will run concurrently with parliamentary elections. In 2017, a constitutional referendum approved reforms which replaced the existing parliamentary system with […]

NGS will now end daily reporting – please contact: risk@northcottglobalsolutions.com to discuss any specific requirements.    Update Day 19    Heavy fighting continued in Khartoum yesterday evening, including air strikes and artillery. Fighting was reportedly heaviest around political and military infrastructure. The East Nile hospital has once again been targeted. This morning, small arms fire […]

Internal Conflict   On 15 April, tensions between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF – a militia group, led by General Hemetti) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF – led by the de facto ruler of Sudan, General al-Burhan) escalated into widespread internal conflict. The fighting has spread to several urban centres (including Port Sudan, Merowe, […]

Over the last two weeks, towns in western Kenya have experienced a wave of violent protests that have seen at least three deaths and over 400 injuries. Unrest has been spearheaded by Raila Odinga (leader of the opposition), who was narrowly beaten by President William Ruto in the 2022 general election and has claimed the […]

With South Africa experiencing some of its worst blackouts in recent history, NGS risk analyst Gary Abbott, considers what the ongoing energy crisis means for the security environment and probes the likelihood of a repeat of July 2021, when widespread looting erupted in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.   Introduction   The ongoing energy crisis in South […]

International Aviation Concerns   On 16 March, Air France’s leading pilots union advised its members that they have the right to refuse to fly into Bamako, after the observation and identification of a Pantsir SA-22, a self-propelled radar-guided Russian surface-to-air missile system capable of attacking targets at a 15km-20km range, near Modibo Keita International Airport. […]

Nigeria is set to head to the polls in an unpredictable presidential election amid a backdrop of heightened insecurity, increasing poverty, and endemic corruption, NGS Risk Analyst, Edward Bach, considers the likely outcome of the election and the wider implications on the security and business environment below:     Introduction:     Saturday 25 February […]

The Pentagon’s recent release of its annual report on the Chinese military signals an ongoing shift in international politics. It points to a more challenging international environment fraught with risks, where states and companies alike will be exposed to an array of challenges including a greater toleration of human rights abuses and the increased politicisation […]

  NGS Russia consultant, Dr Andrew Monaghan, looks at how Moscow views its place in the geopolitical order against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, and the implications this will have on the Kremlin’s foreign policy strategy, the Russian military, and the national economy over the coming years.             […]

Following a year of unprecedented geopolitical developments, forecasting the shape of the world in 2023 is possibly harder than ever. Nonetheless, here NGS Risk Analyst Jason Davies considers the impact of political and security developments throughout 2023 on international relations, and how they will have an impact on international travellers.         Risk Scale:  […]