Territorial revisionism pursued by Russia in Ukraine raises questions over the prospect of similar policies being pursued elsewhere. Amid souring relations between Washington and Beijing over the recent visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taipei it would not be unrealistic for Beijing to seize a string of isolated islands in close proximity to mainland China: the Kinmen islands, the Wuqiu islands, and the Mastsu islands.
Although there are hawkish agents in China (such as a former colonel of the People’s Liberation Army, Liu Mingfu, who argued that the Taiwan dispute has been going on too long and should be resolved through a war of unification), it is unlikely that China would pursue such incursions now. The islands offer little strategic assets, and present more risks than opportunities, reducing the appeal of such a decision. Taiwan is an important issue for China, but it is in China’s interests to wait: acting on Taiwan now is not in their strategic interest.
International Aviation Concerns On 16 March, Air France’s leading pilots union advised its members that they have the right to refuse to fly into Bamako, after the observation and identification of a Pantsir SA-22, a self-propelled radar-guided Russian surface-to-air missile system capable of attacking targets at a 15km-20km range, near Modibo Keita International Airport. […]
Nigeria is set to head to the polls in an unpredictable presidential election amid a backdrop of heightened insecurity, increasing poverty, and endemic corruption, NGS Risk Analyst, Edward Bach, considers the likely outcome of the election and the wider implications on the security and business environment below: Introduction: Saturday 25 February […]
The Pentagon’s recent release of its annual report on the Chinese military signals an ongoing shift in international politics. It points to a more challenging international environment fraught with risks, where states and companies alike will be exposed to an array of challenges including a greater toleration of human rights abuses and the increased politicisation […]
NGS Russia consultant, Dr Andrew Monaghan, looks at how Moscow views its place in the geopolitical order against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, and the implications this will have on the Kremlin’s foreign policy strategy, the Russian military, and the national economy over the coming years. […]
Following a year of unprecedented geopolitical developments, forecasting the shape of the world in 2023 is possibly harder than ever. Nonetheless, here NGS Risk Analyst Jason Davies considers the impact of political and security developments throughout 2023 on international relations, and how they will have an impact on international travellers. Risk Scale: […]
With Iran currently gripped by a period of sustained violent protest, NGS risk analyst Edward Bach considers the likelihood of regime change and the global and regional implications of the recent protests and of any new regime in Tehran. Introduction Iran has been gripped by a sustained wave of […]
With China currently experiencing some of the most widespread cases of public unrest in more than 30 years, NGS risk analyst Gary Abbott considers some of the wider implications for both Beijing and the international community. Introduction The recent protests against President Xi’s Zero-Covid strategy in a string of cities across […]
Lauren Snelling, Senior Associate at Northcott Global Solutions, discusses NGS’ successful evacuations of corporate clients from Ukraine. Successful evacuations from Ukraine necessitated the involvement of a dedicated team, trained to operate in hostile environments As tensions increased between Ukraine and Russia last winter, NGS worked proactively with clients to […]
With climate change having an increasing impact on global politics, NGS considers its implications for the present and future global security environment. Introduction Climate effects and incidence of conflict have been linked in literature for centuries, starting with Hippocrates’ assertions on the ‘warlike temperaments’ of men at different […]
With one of the most important elections in the history of Brazil fast approaching, it is important to consider the security and travel risks associated with the increasingly polarised political environment. Gary Abbott examines below: Introduction Brazil has persistently enjoyed the peaceful transfer of power since it became a democracy in […]
With the international community focussed on the conflict between two long-term adversaries in Ukraine, little attention has been paid to the increasing tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Here, Chris Chrysanthou considers the likelihood that another two long-term rivals, Turkey and Greece, could end up going to war in the near future. Tensions between […]
